Who is the Best Team in College Football After 3 Weeks?
Since 2014, in the college football playoff era, in most seasons it’s been pretty evident early on who was going to win the national championship or at least make the playoffs. In 2014 it was Jameis Winston and the defending national champion Florida State Seminoles, the Oregon Ducks with Heisman trophy winner Marcus Mariota, and then the Ohio State Buckeyes on their 3rd string quarterback and running back Ezekiel Elliott who would eventually win the national championship. From 2015-2020 you had Alabama and Clemson making the playoff every year and you knew coming into the season that was going to be the case. In 2017 Georgia was a nice surprise making the national championship, but the signs were there that they were a top team. In 2019 an even bigger surprise was Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers being one of the best teams of all time, but after they went into Austin in week 2 and defeated the Longhorns after the game was tied and Burrow connected with Ja’Mar Chase on a 3rd and 17 (I still have nightmares) to take the lead and secure the victory, you knew they were the best team in the country. The past 2 years, it’s been the Georgia Bulldogs, and we all knew they were the best team in the country from about week 2 or 3. This season is shaping up to be a great one because of the parity in college football and the number of unknowns we have thus far. So who is standing out as the best team or teams in the country through the first 3 weeks, and can we confidently predict the winner?
This year could be a unique year in college football, maybe not as unique as 2007 when everyone had at least 2 losses and Missouri was ranked #1 with Kansas ranked #2! No that is not a typo, that’s what the Tigers and Jayhawks were ranked in November 2007. Crazy. This season could play out similarly but maybe not that extreme, because I’m not sure that we have a dominant team this year, which makes for a very exciting season. Let’s breakdown the top 6 teams in the AP Poll (who also have the top 6 best odds to win the national championship as of right now) and get to a prediction, after 3 weeks, on who I think is going to win the national championship and the teams I think will make the playoffs.
#1 Georgia
*National Title Odds as of 9/20/23: +200 (1st)
The bulldogs are 3-0 with decisive wins over powerhouses UT Martin and Ball State. In their first decent test, they beat South Carolina 24-14 after being down 14-3 at halftime at home. Far from the dominating performances we’ve seen the last two seasons from the 2-time defending national champions. Georgia has a very manageable schedule this year so it’s hard to see them losing more than 1 regular season game, but I do think they could slip up at some point this season. New starting quarterback Carson Beck has been ok, but there is still just too much unknown from the Bulldogs for me to be confident in picking them right now to win the natty, but given the SEC looks down this year, I feel confident they at least make the playoff.
#2 Michigan
*National Title Odds as of 9/20/23: +400 (2nd)
After three 25+ point victories over East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green to start the season, we have learned nothing from the Wolverines. Conference play begins this week as they host undefeated Rutgers. Michigan was my preseason prediction to win the National Championship and I still feel like they are the most complete team in the country. The only problem is the BIG TEN is a little better than I thought initially and not only do they have to get through Ohio State, they also have to win in Happy Valley against Penn State. I think Michigan will prevail and experience matters especially at the quarterback position where 3 year starter J.J. McCarthy is in charge. I feel confident Michigan makes the playoff and still have them in the title game.
#3 Texas
*National Title Odds as of 9/20/23: +1000 (T-3rd)
Texas had a lot of hype entering the season because of all the talent that Steve Sarkisian has accumulated in his 3 years leading the Longhorns. The talent, especially on offense, is eye popping as they start 8 5-stars on offense alone! So their scoring 60 points a game right? Nope. The Texas offense struggled out of the gate against Rice, scoring a measly 13 points in the first half before winning 37-10. The offense rebounded against Alabama winning 34-24. Then Wyoming last week, the offense struggled again only scoring 10 points in the first half. The Longhorns won 31-10 but the defense had a touchdown. So what to make of Texas so far? Their defense is legit and maybe the most talented unit in the country. Their offense, which everyone thought was the most talented unit in the country, is inconsistent. I just don’t think there is enough consistency to feel confident about predicting Texas to win the national championship. However, the Longhorns most likely make the playoff because of the top 6 teams in the AP poll, they have the easiest path because of how weak the Big XII appears to be this year. The Longhorns will battle Oklahoma on October 7th at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and then most likely again in the Big XII Championship game. If the Longhorns win at least one of those, assuming they win the rest of their games, they will most likely be in the playoff.
#4 Florida State
*National Title Odds as of 9/20/23: +1000 (T-3rd)
After defeating LSU by 21 points to start the season, and then following that up with a 66-13 win over Southern Miss, the Seminoles appeared to be a lock to make the playoff. Then week 3 happened and everyone has doubt. Boston College put up a heck of a fight and nearly had the upset of the young season, but Florida State prevailed 31-29. A couple different ways to take that game: 1) Florida State isn’t as good as previously thought because BC lost to Northern Illinois and barely beat FCS Holy Cross; or 2) It was a conference road game, bad weather conditions, and it was the red bandana game for Boston College (if you don’t know the story of Welles Crowther, look it up, it will make you be proud to be an American). Which direction am I taking on the Seminoles? Mostly the second one and I will give them the benefit of the doubt but Vegas reaction to that game gives me pause as Florida State’s national title odds have dropped significantly and Vegas only has them as a 2 point favorite over Clemson this week. I think Florida State will drop at least one game this year, maybe more, so not a lot of confidence from me on even making the playoffs as of right now.
#5 USC
*National Title Odds as of 9/20/23: +1400 (6th)
Then there is the Trojans of Southern California. A 3-0 start for Lincoln Riley’s bunch and an offense that is averaging 60 points a game and that’s with starting quarterback and defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams playing in 8 of the 12 total quarters so far. This offense is special and Caleb Williams is special. I think the USC offense is the best unit in college football and I don't think there is a defense that can stop them. So what about their defense? After giving up 28 points to San Jose State int he opener, they have responded by holding Nevada to 14 points and Stanford to only 10 points, and in each of those games the opponent scored a last second touchdown on 3rd string true freshman. This defense is improved from last season, which is what held USC by a season ago. The only problem for USC is they play in what appears to be the toughest conference in college football. 8 Pac-12 teams are undefeated and ranked in the top 25 and of the 9 remaining games left for USC, 6 of them are against ranked teams. Can the USC defense hold up against that slate? We’ll see but I think this offense is just to good and will be able to save them more times than not, even if they do drop a tough game down the stretch.
#6 Ohio State
*National Title Odds as of 9/20/23: +1000 (T-3rd)
The Buckeyes sputtered out of the gates winning ugly against Indiana 23-3 in week 1 and defeating Youngstown State at home 35-7. Last Week they put it all together and defeated Western Kentucky 63-10. The Buckeyes defense is legit and might be the best defense in the country. Their offense has struggled as expected because of new starting quarterback Kyle McCord getting his feet wet. It helps win you have maybe the first or second best player in the country in wide out Marvin Harrison Junior to throw the ball too. Harrison Jr. is averaging 100 yards receiving a game and 1 touchdown a game so far, expect his production to increase as McCord becomes more comfortable. The Buckeyes have a tricky schedule remaining, starting this week as they travel to South Bend to take on the talented Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They host Penn State on October 21st and then play rival Michigan in Ann Arbor on November 25th. With their questions at quarterback in big games (especially on the road) and their tough schedule, I wouldn’t be confident in putting money on the Buckeyes as of right now.
So, 3 weeks in, who would I put my money on to win the national championship? The USC Trojans would be my pick because they have been the most impressive to me thus far and they have been dominating on offense. They also have the 6th best odds to win the title, so the payout is better. Still, I think of all the teams I covered above, they have the best unit in the country with their offense and I think their defense can tread water enough to give them a chance. On the Gridiron Grind, my preseason pick was Michigan over USC in the title game. Although I still like that pick, I’m now putting in a pick for USC to win it all after I have received some more data through 3 weeks. Preseason I had a 4-team playoff of: Michigan, USC, LSU, and Georgia. After week 3, my 4-team playoff prediction is: Michigan, Texas, USC, and Georgia.
*odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook