Red River Rivalry - The Matchup
The 119TH meeting of the Red River Rivalry is only two days away. In today’s article, let’s take a look at the matchup that will be played on the field at the Cotton Bowl at 11am on Saturday and how I think this game could be determined.
Oklahoma Offense vs. Texas Defense
6th year quarterback Dillon Gabriel is having a phenomenal year as the signal caller for the Sooners. Gabriel is completing 75% of his passes which is astonishing. A big reason for this is that the Sooner offensive line has been tremendous in pass protection, giving Gabriel time to locate his receivers. The OU offensive line has only given up 2 sacks thus far. However, as good as the Sooner offensive line has been in pass protection, they have been equally as bad in run blocking. In fact, Gabriel, who is only 5’10” 185 lbs., is the leading rusher for the Sooners with 4 touchdowns. None of OU’s running backs have even broken 200 total rushing yards for the season. So in order for the Sooners to pull off the upset, Gabriel is going to have to have an incredible game and his offensive line must be able to hold up in pass protection against maybe the best defensive line in college football this season.
Jeff Lebby is the offensive coordinator for the Sooners and calls the plays. Lebby runs an offense called the “Veer and Shoot” which he got from his father-in-law, Art Briles. The design of the Veer and Shoot offense is as follows:
1. You spread a defense particularly wide, with outside receivers lined up outside the numbers and slot receivers often coming no further inside than the hash marks.
2. RPO’s (run-pass options) force the defense to protect the width of the field, making it immensely difficult to get numbers into the box to handle spread run staples like inside zone and counter.
3. Most importantly, the offense lines up deep shots (usually on vertical choice routes) where the quarterback can drop back and know he’s got a particular receiver running into open grass against a (often favorable) 1-on-1 matchup.
Oklahoma has executed this philosophy very well this season, as Gabriel has connected on 13 deep passes (passes where the ball travels over 25 yards down field) so far this season. Must coordinator’s who run the Veer and Shoot, actually prefer to run the ball because a lot of teams usually only have 6 defenders in the box, and with a tight end, that’s one-on-one blocking which usually favors the offense. That is the exact reason the Veer and Shoot was created by Art Briles, to create favorable numbers in the box to make it easier to run. But as mentioned before, Oklahoma has struggled to run the ball this season, making it ever so important to connect on those deep shots.
So how will Texas try to stop OU’s Veer and Shoot offense?
The simplest way to defend this offense is to be able to hold up in 1-on-1 matchups somewhere on the field. Most teams either have a light box (6 defenders) with zone coverage, that can reliably stuff runs without involving safeties hawking down from near proximity or else play man-to-man coverage outside which dares the offense to consistently hit shots.
Texas however, traditionally plays mostly quarter’s coverage, which can be like an off-coverage man, where the two cornerback and the two safeties split the field into ¼ and cover their area. Texas will play with 6 defenders in the box, 4 defensive lineman and 2 linebackers, but then also have their 5TH defensive back lined up to the wide side of the field outside the box but he usually has containment on running plays to his side and plays zone coverage underneath with the other 2 linebackers. Texas will mix in blitzes with their linebackers and has a lot of success so far this season looping and stunting their defensive lineman which tends to give inexperienced offensive lines problems.
Has OU faced similar defensive schemes this season?
Yes, both Cincinnati and SMU run very similar schemes to what Texas runs. For Oklahoma, that was their two lowest scoring games of the season and Gabriel’s least efficient games. As mentioned before, Gabriel has hit 13 deep shots so far this season, here is a list of those deep shots:
Team Deep Shots Hit by Gabriel OU points scored
Arkansas State 3 66
SMU 0 28
Tulsa 5 59
Cincinnati 1 20
Iowa State 4 41
As you can see, Gabriel hit 0 and 1 deep shots against SMU and Cincinnati. Both of those teams play an off (instead of press) man-to-man coverage and both teams have a very good pass rush. That’s basically what Texas does but, unfortunately for Oklahoma, with way better players than SMU or Cincinnati.
I believe Texas will definitely pick their spots on blitzing Gabriel but will hope that their talented defensive line can win against Oklahoma’s offensive line, to create pressure on Gabriel and not give him time to hit those deep shots. Texas will play their safeties deep and force Oklahoma to either try to beat them deep, settle for throwing it underneath, or try to run the ball, all while the defensive line is trying to get to Gabriel. When Oklahoma has to either run the ball or move the ball down the field in the short passing game, like SMU and Cincinnati forced them to do, they do not score as many points and are less efficient.
The strength of Oklahoma’s team is the O-line in pass protection followed by their speed amongst the younger receivers. Texas’ game plan will either mitigate or attack the ability of the Sooners to keep their small but veteran quarterback consistently clean. If the Longhorns can dominate the pocket, the entire Sooner offense unravels and Oklahoma poses no real threat to Texas due to the lack of running game. But if Gabriel can consistently hit some deep shots and those receivers can consistently beat those safeties deep, then we might have a pretty good ball game on our hands.
Texas Offense v. Oklahoma Defense
This is really a matchup between head coaches. Steve Sarkisian calls the offense for Texas and Brent Venables calls the defense for Oklahoma. Last year, this matchup did not go so well for Venables' defense as Texas scored 49 points. In his two Red River Rivalry games, Sark’s offense’s have scored 48 and 49 points and this Texas offense is better than the two previous year’s … but so is this Oklahoma defense.
Ever since Sark was hired in Austin for the 2021 season, he has talked about and recruited as such, to having a complete offense that can run the ball whenever they want too and can make people pay in the passing game whenever they put more defenders in the box. Well, in his 3rd year as head coach, he finally has that kind of offense. The Texas offensive line returns all 5 starters from a season ago and they have gotten better every week. After looking a bit rusty in the opener against Rice, they responded by running for over 100 yards on a Nick Saban defense and not giving up a sack to the Crimson Tide either. But the most impressive part of their week 2 victory in Tuscaloosa was when Texas got the ball up 10 points with 7:14 left to go in the game and the longhorns were able to run out the clock on Alabama by running the ball 9 straight times for 3 first downs. The Longhorns have now rushed for over 200 yards in their last 3 games and the holes keep getting bigger and bigger. Quinn Ewers has been effective in the passing game, completing 66% and throwing 10 touchdowns to only 1 interception. But where his game has really grown the last 2 weeks is his ability to run the ball on scrambles. Ewers had a 29 yard touchdown run against Baylor and a 30 yard touchdown run against Kansas.
The Longhorns passing game has also evolved from week to week. Traditionally Sark wants to throw the ball deep, but Ewers really excels in the intermediate passing game through play-action and RPO’s. Early on Sark dialed up a lot of deep shots and they were successful against Alabama but each week since, the Longhorn’s offense has shifted more and more away from the deep shots and more to the Ewers strength in the intermediate game.
Texas has so many weapons on offense. Adonai Mithcell and Xavier Worthy might be the most explosive wide receiver duo in the country. Tight End Ja’Tavion Sanders (who is questionable with a high ankle sprain) is a projected first rounder for the NFL draft in April. This Texas offense is loaded, they start 8 former high school 5 star’s on offense with 5 more as backups.
So how does Brent Venables attempt to stop the Texas offense?
Well the first decision Venables has to make, is what personnel does he want to play. The last few games the Sooners have mainly played with 4 defensive lineman, 3 linebackers and 4 defensive backs. Most teams now play with only 2 linebackers in favor of 5 defensive backs because of the emphasis on the passing game. The only problem is, OU’s 3rd linebacker is Dasan McCullough who lines up in what Venables calls the “Cheetah” position. McCullough is extremely talented and has been a big playmaker for the Sooners in conference play. So why is this a problem? Well McCullough is 6’5” 233 lbs. and runs a 4.6 and is not very good in coverage. Therefore, Sark will draw up plays where McCullough will have to defend against one of Texas many receiving options and it will be mismatch city. Add to that, Oklahoma starts a true freshman cornerback in Gentry Williams and true freshman safety Peyton Bowen plays a lot, the Sooner defense would be putting a lot on their coverage guys in the most emotional game of the season against one of the most talented offenses in the country. If Venables elects to go with a 5th defensive back instead of McCullough, then Texas will try to run the ball on the 6 defenders in the box and that spells advantage Texas.
I suspect Venables will probably mix up his looks as much as he can get away with and probably will play 5 defensive backs most of the time. My guess is, Venables will concede that they probably can’t stop all of Texas weapons so he will probably just focus on trying to stop Texas running game with different looks and timely blitzes and then instead of trying to stop all of the receivers, OU will just focus on trying to blitz and confuse Quinn Ewers and hopefully get him to make some mistakes with turnovers and rattle him. However, so far, Ewers has been up to the challenge against ranked teams in Alabama and Kansas, and also already has a win in the Red River Rivalry under his belt from last year.
To me, Oklahoma is definitely a better defense than they were last season but I think they are still a year away from being able to hold up in the trenches against teams like Texas who can stress a defense both through the air and on the ground. Obviously by the tone of this write up, I expect Texas to win because I just think they are the better overall team and have more options to turn to and more ways they can win. Vegas agrees, Texas is a 6.5 point favorite, with 84% of all bets placed on Texas to cover and 91% of all the money bet on this game is on Texas as well.
Does Oklahoma even have a chance?
Absolutely there is a path for Oklahoma to win this game, I just think it’s a lot smaller margin of error for them than Texas. Oklahoma needs Gabriel to have a remarkable game both throwing and running, need to hit some deep shots, stop Texas run game, create turnovers and frustrate Quinn Ewers. But if Texas doesn’t allow any deep shots from Gabriel and they don’t turn the ball over and force Oklahoma to try and beat them straight up, that type of game favors the Longhorns.